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The Initial Line…Caesar’s-3.5, The Mirage-4, Stations-3.5

Okay, this is the initial line. Ay least one, if not all of these lines will change. It’s beautiful-it’s based on supply and demand. If everyone starts the week by laying money on Chicago, the line will drop to 3. A field goal. If most of the money is going on Green Bay, the line may expand to four or four-amd-a-half.

Things to consider:Well, duh, for starters, it’s a home game for Green Bay;two-how well do you think you “know” the Packers (offense, defense, kicking game, and special teams plus “intangibles)? Their injury report?;three-the weather report (this doesn’t normally come into play in domed stadiums, but, it may in Green Bay-especially if its cold, windy or snowing);four-How well have you analyzed the Bears? If not, do it. Offense and defense. Kicking game. Special teams. Intangibles.;five-Coaching-How has the current coach for the Bears done against the Packers? Know these things.

Also, remember, your buddies in Chi-town, think they’re going to kick our ass. We think we’re going to kick theirs. The bookies think Green Bay will win by three or four points. The top bookmakers in Vegas think it’s going to be won by Green Bay by a field goal or maybe a point more, you know, like 17-13 or 17-14. Or 24-20, maybe 24-21. That half point may turn out to be huge.

Oh, and for your information, Lovie Smith and the Bears in the past five years, have gone 7-3 versus the Packers. Including two of the three regular season losses for Green Bay in 2007. In both games, the Bears were the dogs (underdogs). Hmmm. So, maybe Chicago could win? Yes, they could. Even worse, we’re up by six…You took the Pack and gave the book three-and-a-half points…so, Green Bay must win by four or better…they kick a late field goal and the Pack wins by three. You lose your wager, by a half-point. Painful. Many, I repeat, many three and a half point lines are won by three. Remember, this is the rivalry game for the Bears. They circle both our games at the beginning of the year. They focus on us.

How I’m thinking… Number one, I LOVE the Packers. Notice the word love is capitalized. That means I’m emotionally attached to them. So, I personally, this is me, am not going to place a wager on them in this game. They’re my number four pick. Why? Well, to be honest, the big question mark for me is two things I really don’t know at this point. One:How good is Jay Cutler and the Bear offense? I know Matt Forte is stout. I know Olsen, their TE is a future All-Pro. I frankly am not sold on their WR’s, but, I didn’t watch any tape of the first half of any of their preseason games. Did you? Also, I have no clue about their defense. Will they suck like last year or will they be the Bears defense of 2006? I don’t know. Most weeks, I repeat, most weeks during the regular season, I do not place ANY wagers. So, personally, I’m going to watch this specific game and enjoy it.

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